Saturday, May 16, 2009

The next big crisis

We have blogged about the defined benefits crisis, but defined contribution plans are facing catastrophe as well:
You can see it if you look at the growing number of older Americans who have kept working into their 60s and 70s or gone back into the work force. Without a dramatic change not just in the amount of money that we save but in how we save, it will get much worse. In the 1980s, Britain launched what turned out to be a disastrous experiment in asking people to take responsibility for their retirement investments without giving them the tools to do it. We're now well on our way to repeating it on a much bigger scale.

Without it, we're facing a one-two punch in the retirement future. The left hook is the shortage of savings. The right hook is the added investment and longevity risk that the new model of retirement brings. It's a potential disaster as big as the mortgage and credit crisis. And as with those, if we get to it, folks in finance will be out in force, crying that nobody could possibly have seen it coming. That's just not true.

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